MD 0652 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0652
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0436 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Areas affected...The eastern Florida coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 282136Z - 282330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may pose a severe hail
and damaging wind threat through the evening hours along the eastern
Florida coast. Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Robust convective initiation is well underway across
the central to eastern FL Peninsula. Daytime heating has allowed
surface temperatures to warm into the mid 80s to low 90s, which is
supporting MLCAPE values upwards of 2000 J/kg as well as 0-3 km
lapse rates near 8 C/km. Recent VWP observations from KMLB show
elongated hodographs with effective bulk shear values estimated near
40-50 knots - especially to the east of a migratory sea-breeze
boundary where low-level shear is enhanced. This thermodynamic and
kinematic environment is conducive to organized convection,
including the potential for supercellular structures with an
attendant large hail threat if discrete modes can be maintained.
Regardless of cell longevity, recent KMLB velocity data shows a few
notable downburst signatures associated with some of the deeper/more
robust cells, indicating that bursts of damaging to severe winds are
probable with this activity through the evening hours.
..Moore/Grams.. 04/28/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 26898109 27358144 27898154 28298126 28408080 28288054
27888024 27317998 26917994 26637999 26478024 26508057
26618087 26898109
