MD 0653 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177…179…180… FOR EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0653
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Areas affected...East-central and Southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177...179...180...
Valid 282153Z - 290000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177, 179,
180 continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts, large hail and an isolated tornado
threat are expected over the next couple of hours across parts of
east-central and southeast Texas. A few gusts above 70 knots will be
possible.
DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D hi-res radar imagery from Granger,
Texas shows a continuous line of severe storms oriented
northeast-to-southwest across the eastern Texas Hill Country. This
line is located along the northwestern edge of strong instability,
where surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s F and MLCAPE is
estimated to be in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range. At mid-levels, the
RAP is analyzing the exit region of a 50 to 65 knot jet over central
Texas. As the stronger flow within the jet approaches this evening,
moderate deep-layer and lift will remain favorable for severe
storms. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Granger, Texas has 0-6 km shear
near 55 knots, with some directional shear in the boundary layer and
strong speed shear in the mid-levels. This will support the
development of supercells and bowing line segments. Supercells will
likely remain embedded within the line, and have a potential for
large hail, wind damage and possibly a brief tornado or two. The
line is expected to accelerate somewhat over the next hour, which
could increase the wind-damage threat. As this occurs, a few
damaging gusts above 70 knots will be possible along and just ahead
of the more intense parts of the line.
..Broyles.. 04/28/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 29589781 29779843 30039850 30209821 30689729 31069666
31199622 30929576 30329564 29869583 29679636 29569712
29589781
