MD 0660 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0660
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023
Areas affected...the Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 291914Z - 292015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing severe risk over the Florida Peninsula over the
next couple of hours will require WW issuance.
DISCUSSION...Latest satellite and radar data shows a long-lived MCS
moving across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, toward the western
coast of Florida. Ahead of the MCS, daytime heating of the
pre-existing moist boundary layer across central and southern
Florida has yielded moderate destabilization -- which is currently
supporting isolated/inland convective activity.
While local severe risk is evident with these more isolated/ongoing
storms (please see recently issued MCD 659), risk should gradually
increase across a broader portion of the peninsula as the MCS
reaches the coast, over the next couple of hours. As the leading
band of storms moves inland, potential for damaging winds and hail,
and possibly a tornado or two, will combine with the
pre-existing/more isolated potential that is currently ongoing, to
warrant WW issuance within the next hour or so.
..Goss/Thompson.. 04/29/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29308327 29578228 29498113 27958018 26828001 26208061
26188202 27778292 29308327
