MD 0666 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0666
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023
Areas affected...portions of northeast South Carolina into eastern
North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 301637Z - 301830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to gradually increase ahead
of an approaching surface low. Damaging gusts are the primary
threat, though an instance of large hail or a tornado cannot be
ruled out. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Ample surface heating is occurring behind an initial
round of showers and thunderstorms across northeast SC into eastern
NC, with surface temperatures rising into the 70s F amid mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints, contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Scattered thunderstorms have already initiated along an eastward
moving cold front and are poised to move into the aforementioned
zone of modest heating/buoyancy through early afternoon. A mid-level
jet streak is overspreading the Carolina Piedmont, with the 16Z
mesoanalysis showing well over 60 kts of effective bulk shear
present. RAP forecast soundings and regional VADs depict straight
hodographs associated with unidirectional vertical wind/shear
profiles, suggesting that storm modes should be predominantly
linear. Damaging gusts would be the main threat with any storms that
can intensify and achieve longevity, though an instance of large
hail or perhaps a tornado are still possible.
Given marginal buoyancy and the approach of a deep-layer dry slot,
the intensity that storms may achieve this afternoon is in question.
As such, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the
need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/30/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 33797872 33917942 34427975 35457853 36007777 36047772
36367665 36077607 35327616 34657693 34307779 33797872
