MD 0667 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL OREGON TO NORTHWEST NEVADA
Mesoscale Discussion 0667
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Mon May 01 2023
Areas affected...Central Oregon to northwest Nevada
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012241Z - 020045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a severe wind risk this
afternoon and evening over central Oregon to northwest Nevada;
however, this threat will remain fairly isolated. Watch issuance is
not expected.
DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have been occurring across
northern CA, southern OR, and northwest NV over the past couple of
hours, but a couple of more intense cells (denoted by colder
cloud-top temperatures and higher, more persistent lightning
concentrations) are noted over southeast OR within the past 30
minutes. This trend aligns with recent environmental analyses which
show the best buoyancy (MUCAPE up to around 500 J/kg) and deep-layer
shear (effective BWD values near 30-40 knots) over southeastern OR
into parts of northwest NV.
Recent HRRR runs depict more intense thunderstorms developing across
this region and migrating northwestward over the next 2-3 hours, and
the recently noted storms in southeast OR are likely the onset of
this activity. Forecast soundings from this environment also show
inverted-V profiles with nearly 3 km deep boundary layers and PWAT
values near 0.4 inches - a favorable environment for severe
downbursts. Consequently, the potential for severe wind appears to
be increasing across the region, and will likely persist through
sunset. Weak forcing for ascent will favor isolated cells with
limited thunderstorm coverage, which should negate the need for a
watch.
..Moore/Guyer.. 05/01/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR...
LAT...LON 40801960 41942013 42252094 43952135 44882067 45191967
44651854 43441751 41901726 41421750 40581813 40561917
40801960
