MD 0668 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NM INTO WEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0668
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Tue May 02 2023
Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern NM into west TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 022030Z - 022300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may gradually increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon, with both severe winds and hail possible.
Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Convection has been slowly increasing along and just
east of the Sacramento/Guadalupe Mountains in southern NM and the
Davis Mountains in west TX. This is occurring as a weak shortwave
trough moves over this region, and modest low-level upslope flow
continues. The current activity is rather high based, given the
presence of generally 30s surface dewpoints and a very well mixed
boundary layer where surface heating has occurred. As this
convection spreads east-northeastward over the next couple of hours,
these thunderstorms will gradually intercept modestly greater
low-level moisture characterized by mid 40s to mid 50s surface
dewpoints present across far eastern NM into west TX.
Some intensification of this convection may occur as it intercepts
the greater instability across west TX. Still, deep-layer shear
remains rather modest, around 20-30 kt, due to the low-amplitude
nature of the shortwave trough and weak low-level mass response.
Multicell clusters will probably be the dominant mode with any
convection that can persist with eastward extent. Given the steep
low/mid-level lapse rates and inverted-v type soundings, severe wind
gusts should be the main threat, but some hail may also occur with
the more robust updrafts. Overall convective organization and
intensity may remain somewhat marginal/isolated late this afternoon
and evening, and the need for a watch is unclear. Regardless,
observational trends will be closely monitored.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/02/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 31300293 31580328 32020350 33770349 34260324 34350275
34330219 34090186 33710174 33110166 32060169 31480212
31280249 31300293
