MD 0671 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NM AND WEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0671
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Wed May 03 2023
Areas affected...Portions of southeastern NM and west TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 031952Z - 032215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and severe wind gusts should
gradually increase as thunderstorms develop this afternoon. Watch
issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...Mostly clear/sunny skies have allowed ample daytime
heating to occur this afternoon across the southern High Plains.
Most locations across southeastern NM into west TX have generally
warmed into the upper 70s to mid 80s, amid low to mid 50s surface
dewpoints. Although large-scale ascent aloft remains nebulous/weak,
convection should continue to gradually develop along the higher
terrain of the Sacramento/Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, with modest
low-level upslope flow persisting. Once this activity reaches the
greater low-level moisture a bit farther east, it should gradually
increase in coverage and intensity as it encounters around 1000-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE. Even though low/mid-level winds remain somewhat
modest, there is enough veering with height through mid levels to
foster 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear.
A mix of loosely organized multicells and perhaps a couple of
supercells should develop and persist this afternoon and evening.
With steep mid-level lapse rates present on the 12Z MAF sounding,
any persistent supercell should pose some threat for large hail.
Multicell clusters will tend to have more of a severe/damaging wind
risk as they spread eastward with time. Primary uncertainty remains
the number of thunderstorms that will develop given weak large-scale
forcing. Still, if it becomes apparent that multiple robust updrafts
will develop/persist, then Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will
be considered for parts of southeastern NM into west TX.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/03/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 30950412 32070461 33290455 33620381 33670295 33440223
32970194 31930186 31020186 30030205 29810231 29710259
29600279 29790353 30950412
