MD 0673 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWEST TX…FAR SOUTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0673
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023
Areas affected...northwest TX...far southwest OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 041843Z - 042045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Convective initiation will probably occur near the
dryline/outflow intersection prior to 3pm. A tornado watch is being
considered for portions of northwest TX and immediately adjacent
parts of southwest OK.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a towering cumulus
field centered on Garza County, TX near a dryline bulge. Surface
analysis indicates a messy placement of boundaries across northwest
TX and southwest OK. The aforementioned dryline extends southwest
from near the Caprock into the Pecos Valley. An outflow boundary
extends from the southeast TX Panhandle arching southeast into
northwest TX to the south of the Red River, while a synoptic warm
front/composite boundary extends eastward near the Red River.
Surface temperatures north of the outflow/warm front are in the 60s
with 70s nestled in between the warm front and outflow boundary. To
the south of the outflow boundary, temperatures have warmed into the
lower 80s in locations void of denser mid to high-level cloud cover.
Surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s east of the dryline from near
San Angelo to north of Abilene. Additional heating will occur as
the cirrus shield over western north TX shifts east and upwards of
1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by mid afternoon. Effective shear will
support a supercellular mode. Large to very large hail (diameters 1
to 2.5 inches) and a tornado are possible with storms that manage to
mature and optimally interact in the vicinity of the west-east
oriented low-level boundaries.
..Smith/Thompson.. 05/04/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 34290063 34540025 34459798 34029764 33409774 33029790
32970034 33360058 33800072 34290063
