MD 0677 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 185… FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0677
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023
Areas affected...portions of North Texas and far southern Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado Watch 185...
Valid 050013Z - 050145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 185 continues.
SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells should continue eastward for a few
more hours with a risk for hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes
towards the eastern edge of WW185.
DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, a cluster of supercells in North TX
has shown signs of intensification with higher reflectively and
deeper MESH cores noted from regional radar analysis. Additional
storm development/clustering has also been observed, suggesting
low-level jet intensification is ongoing. 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
should continue to support robust updrafts toward sunset as storms
move eastward at around 25 kt.
Current HRRR forecasts and observational trends suggest some upscale
growth is possible but the storm mode is expected to remain
primarily supercellular given 40-45 kt of effective shear. Large
hail will remain possible with these storms given the supercell mode
and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km. Some increase in
low-level shear may also support a couple of tornadoes across
portions of North TX as backed low-level flow increases and the
low-level jet intensifies. Given that storms are approaching the
eastern edge of WW185, a new watch or a local extension may be
needed across portions of north TX and far southern OK in the next
hour.
..Lyons.. 05/05/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33379831 33579848 33829834 34079783 34149742 34159715
34159683 34149657 34109633 34059615 33959601 33869594
33729593 33579595 33409610 33289635 33289660 33299723
33309773 33379831
