MD 0691 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0691
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Sat May 06 2023
Areas affected...portions of southern South Dakota into
central/northern Nebraska.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 062232Z - 070000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms may continue to pose an isolated
risk for hail and wind into this evening. A weather watch is
unlikely.
DISCUSSION...As of 2230 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
clusters of storms ongoing across portions of NE and SD. Numerous
surface boundaries have been analyzed within the mostly well-mixed
air mass across the central and northern Plains. With surface
dewpoints in the 40s and 50s F and steep low-level lapse rates from
diurnal heating, modest MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg has developed.
This should be sufficient to maintain a few stronger updrafts
through this evening. Mid-level shear however, remains modest at or
around 30 kt. This suggest more transient storm organization of
multicell clusters and perhaps weak supercell structures. The
well-mixed air mass will favor damaging downbursts, though some hail
potential will also be possible with the more robust updrafts. Given
the presence of numerous surface boundaries and minimal low-level
shear, a brief landspout or two is possible through this evening.
Given the uncertainty on storm organization and coverage, a weather
watch appears unlikely this evening.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/06/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 40939771 40669922 40559988 40510037 40850105 41640159
42360136 43040138 43510164 43770192 44080210 44600258
45020262 45170215 45130153 44860084 44700024 44649949
44629909 44349861 43959781 43139712 42689686 41719658
41489665 41099699 40939771
