MD 0700 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 191… FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0700 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sun May 07 2023 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Iowa and adjacent northeastern Missouri into central Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 191... Valid 070637Z - 070830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 191 continues. SUMMARY...Remaining valid portion of Severe thunderstorm Watch 191 may be locally extended an hour or two, with trends continuing to being monitored for the possibility of a new severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...Even as one mid-level short wave perturbation progresses eastward into southern portions of the Great Lakes region, low-level warm advection and elevated inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by large CAPE remains focused above/northeast of a trailing convectively reinforced surface boundary. The associated baroclinic zone extends roughly from the far eastern Iowa/Missouri border vicinity into central Illinois around Springfield, with scattered vigorous thunderstorm development being maintained, and at least some upscale growth underway. As the upscale growth continues, the lingering risk for severe hail probably will diminish further during the next few hours. However, it is possible that consolidating convection could be accompanied by increasing potential for strong surface gusts. Confidence in this scenario remains low, but trends will be monitored for the possibility of a new severe weather watch. ..Kerr.. 05/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 40729223 41149135 41119046 40658944 40028981 39969066 40389201 40729223