MD 0703 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0703 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 AM CDT Sun May 07 2023 Areas affected...parts of central through northeastern Nebraska into western Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 070951Z - 071215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may continue to pose at least some risk for severe weather into and beyond daybreak. It is not clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity (currently near Broken Bow through areas west and northeast of Norfolk) has probably been producing some severe hail while intensifying and gradually growing upscale the past hour or two. This appears to be focused within a zone of enhanced mid-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air. Given the steep lapse rates aloft, elevated moisture return may be contributing to moderately large CAPE, in the presence of strong cloud-bearing layer shear. It is possible that the forcing for ascent could contribute to the evolution of a small organizing cluster across the Sioux City area through daybreak, with additional thunderstorm development downstream, to the southeast, across western Iowa. Despite the presence of a sizable sub-cloud layer with warm temperatures and large temperature/dew point spreads, weak ambient flow through this layer, coupled with at least a shallow relatively cool near-surface layer, may tend to minimize the risk for the development of strong surface gusts. ..Kerr/Grams.. 05/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42159817 42539612 41759400 40749498 41239676 41139829 41529908 42159817