MD 0713 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195… FOR SOUTHERN…CENTRAL AND WESTERN ILLINOIS…AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY.
Mesoscale Discussion 0713 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023 Areas affected...Southern...central and western Illinois...and far western Kentucky. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195... Valid 072040Z - 072145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will continue through this afternoon across southern, central and western Illinois and far western Kentucky. DISCUSSION...Numerous strong to severe thunderstorms have developed along the remnant outflow boundary from central Illinois to southern Illinois and far western Kentucky. Across the majority of this area, storms have likely reached peak intensity as they have propagated into the cooler/more stable air east of the outflow boundary. The exception is in central Illinois and western Illinois where very strong instability remains with the SPC mesoanalysis showing 2500 to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. In addition, stronger mid-level flow in this region makes storm organization more likely. In fact, a large supercell has developed in Sangamon county and has developed a strong mid-level mesocyclone. Additional towers to the northwest of this storm may also organize into supercells in the next hour with a primary threat of large to potentially very large (2+ inch) hail. Very weak low-level shear should keep the overall tornado threat limited. ..Bentley.. 05/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 38638991 39459047 39999066 40309096 40619106 40829074 40758968 40408919 40078907 39208842 37488748 37378741 36728760 36548786 36538834 36708876 37808954 38638991