MD 0716 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 196… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KS.
Mesoscale Discussion 0716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023
Areas affected...portions of southern and central Nebraska and
northern KS.
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196...
Valid 072201Z - 072330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196
continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds and hail will continue across
WW196. Upscale growth into an organized cluster favoring damaging
gusts is possible later this evening.
DISCUSSION...As of 2150 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
clusters of strong to severe storms ongoing across portions of
western NE and northwestern KS. Located within a westward extending
filament of higher thetaE along and north of a stationary front,
these storms will continue to move eastward into a relatively warm
and well-mixed air mass, with surface dewpoints in the 40s and 50s
F. Steep mid and low-level lapse rates were supporting 1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and should be sufficient for continued storm maintenance.
Area VAD/VWPs also favor a continued severe risk with 40-50 kt of
effective shear and a high-based supercell/organized cluster storm
mode. Large hail and strong wind gusts will remain possible across
much of WW196 as storms track eastward over the next couple of
hours. Recent Hi-res guidance also suggests some upscale growth of
surface cold pools is possible given the high-based nature of the
ongoing storms. Should a cluster develop and move eastward, an
increase in damaging wind potential may occur late this evening.
..Lyons.. 05/07/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 41919925 40339950 39339976 39300162 39400194 39530230
39880233 40670207 41170174 41860068 41989987 41919925
