MD 0725 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 198…199… FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NE…SOUTHWEST IA…FAR NORTHEAST KS…NORTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0725
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023
Areas affected...far southeast NE...southwest IA...far northeast
KS...northwest MO
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198...199...
Valid 080200Z - 080400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198, 199
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe gusts will probably become more widespread as
further upscale growth occurs via storm mergers, thereby limiting
overall updraft intensity and hail potential, except on the southern
flank of the evolving squall line.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic over the past hour has shown a
consolidation of storms into a southwest-northeast band of storms
from southwest IA into northeast KS. The 7pm Topeka, KS raob showed
very steep lapse rates in the mid to upper levels (8 deg C/km in the
750mb-225mb layer). The terminus of a strengthening southerly LLJ
will focus over the lower MO Valley into the late evening and
overnight and promote additional moistening. The associated
isentropic lift and moisture flux into the region will aid the
squall line in developing eastward across northern MO into the
overnight. At least an isolated to widely scattered risk for
damaging/severe gusts will probably accompany this activity and it
may require an eventual severe thunderstorm watch to the east of
severe thunderstorm watch 199. This forecast scenario is congruent
with recent time-lagged HRRR model runs this evening.
..Smith.. 05/08/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 41369437 41009536 40169674 39879684 39579671 39469636
39579517 39969392 40409314 40949313 41349360 41369437
