MD 0727 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201… FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0727
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Mon May 08 2023
Areas affected...much of central Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 201...
Valid 080707Z - 080900Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 201
continues.
SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm activity will continue to
overspread the Lower Missouri Valley through 5-7 AM CDT, accompanied
by a lingering risk for occasional, localized damaging wind gusts.
Due to the relatively marginal nature of the severe threat, a new
severe weather watch is not anticipated, but trends will continue to
be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Stronger lingering thunderstorm activity, comprising
the large cluster of storms, now appears mostly rooted above both
prior and recently produced convective outflow. Models indicate
that the supporting mid-level short wave will continue an eastward
or east-northeastward progression across Iowa/northern Missouri,
into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois through daybreak.
However, stronger low-level forcing associated with warm advection,
and the more moist elevated southerly inflow, appear likely to lag a
bit to the south and southwest, where mid-level cooling
overspreading the Interstate 70 into Interstate 44 corridor may
maintain the strongest renewed convective development through
10-12Z.
Given thermodynamic profiles with initially steep mid-level lapse
rates and sizable temperature/dew point spreads, some of this
activity may be accompanied by occasional, locally strong surface
gusts. Otherwise, generally weak ambient lower/mid-tropospheric
flow (on the order of 20-30 kt) and a relatively stable
surface-based layer may continue to limit a more
substantive/widespread risk for damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr.. 05/08/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38869394 38989323 39319246 39779186 38789034 37829221
37989346 38869394
