MD 0732 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST TX INTO PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0732
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Mon May 08 2023
Areas affected...Northwest TX into parts of the Concho Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 082036Z - 082230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is possible later this afternoon
into the early evening. Isolated severe wind/hail are possible.
DISCUSSION...At 2030 UTC, cumulus is gradually increasing from
northwest TX into parts of the Concho Valley, within a hot and
well-mixed environment. MLCAPE is generally weak to moderate
(500-1500 J/kg) due to limited low-level moisture, but continued
heating will remove MLCINH and increase the potential for isolated
high-based storm development later this afternoon into the evening
along a weak dryline. With generally weak deep-layer flow/shear,
storms will quickly become outflow dominant, with localized severe
gusts possible. With time, storms may initiate or propagate along
outflows farther to the east, where greater buoyancy could support
an isolated hail threat with the strongest cells. Due to the
relatively limited coverage and magnitude of the threat, watch
issuance is unlikely.
..Dean/Guyer.. 05/08/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 34359999 34179919 32829896 31709906 31149964 30970026
31000068 31040128 31390147 32900061 33820065 33920049
34359999
