MD 0744 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WEST-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0744
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023
Areas affected...East-central CO into west-central KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 092027Z - 092200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible into early evening,
with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. Watch
issuance is possible later this afternoon, depending on trends
regarding expected storm coverage.
DISCUSSION...A supercell that is likely producing hail is ongoing at
2015 UTC across Rush County, KS, with other cumulus noted along a
slow-moving surface boundary from west-central KS into east-central
CO. Strong surface heating and modest low-level moisture is
supporting MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg near/north of the boundary
across western KS, with more modest buoyancy into east-central CO.
Large-scale ascent is nebulous at best across the region, but
continued heating/mixing and modest convergence along the surface
boundary may support additional isolated storm development later
this afternoon. Deep-layer flow is generally weak, but low-level
east/southeasterly flow north of the boundary is supporting
effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for organized convection,
including the potential for an additional supercell or two. Isolated
hail and severe gusts are expected to be the primary threats into
early evening. The need for a watch in this area remains uncertain,
but watch issuance is possible later this afternoon depending on the
trends regarding expected storm coverage.
..Dean/Guyer.. 05/09/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38979973 38819922 37699943 38050078 38230137 38460204
38980320 39290384 39560374 39620291 39590190 39470109
38979973
