MD 0745 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0745
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023
Areas affected...Portions of Deep South Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 092037Z - 092200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few supercells are possible with the potential for large
hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado.
DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from a MCV across southeast Texas
has stalled from near LAD to CRP. The airmass south of this outflow
boundary has destabilized significantly with very steep mid-level
lapse rates and temperatures in the 80s with dewpoints near 70. Both
the BRO and CRP VWP have shown strengthening low-level southerly
flow in the last hour. This strengthening low-level jet, combined
with convergence along the outflow boundary has proven sufficient
for a few storms to develop in Duval and Jim Wells counties. Given
35 to 40 knots of effective shear per BRO and CRP VWP, these storms
could organize into supercells this afternoon. If a mature supercell
can develop and move along or south of the boundary, it will pose a
threat for all severe weather hazards including large hail, damaging
winds and perhaps a tornado (given the larger than previously
forecast low level hodographs).
..Bentley/Guyer.. 05/09/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON 27739976 28219946 28299821 28119745 27869690 27369726
26829724 26599741 26459853 26319890 26419917 26909944
27739976
