MD 0748 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0748
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0549 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023
Areas affected...portions of upstate South Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 092249Z - 100015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated risk for wind and hail may continue for a
couple more hours this evening across portions of upstate south
Carolina. Storms should begin to weaken near sunset with the loss of
daytime heating.
DISCUSSION...As of 2245 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms with recent reports of
hail ongoing across portions of northwestern SC. Located along a
modified outflow boundary/effective front, 1500-200 J/kg of MLCAPE
along this boundary may continue to support a few stronger updrafts
this evening. While not overly strong, effective shear is sufficient
for some storm organization into multi-cell cluster with VAD/VWPs
showing 25-30 kt. With steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient
cape/shear in place, these storms may continue to pose an isolated
risk for severe hail and wind gusts this evening. Hi-res guidance
and the lack of a stronger supporting synoptic system hint that
storms will begin to fade with the loss of diurnal heating in the
next couple of hours. Given the uncertainty on the longevity of any
severe threat, a watch is unlikely.
..Lyons/Hart.. 05/09/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34878240 34638188 34338170 34098167 33838175 33698195
33718217 33778223 33948244 34278259 34608258 34878240
