MD 0750 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0750
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023
Areas affected...portions of central and southern North Carolina
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205...
Valid 100012Z - 100115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205
continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail
may continue for a couple more hours this evening. Storms have
generally weakened and this trend should continue as they approach
the southern end of WW206.
DISCUSSION...Over the last 30-60 minutes, ongoing storms across
parts of WW206 have shown a general weakening trend as reflectivity
and radar echo tops have slowly decreased. As they continue to track
southeastward over the next couple of hours, they will continue to
encounter a partially convectively overturned air mass from previous
storms. This, along with recent hi-res guidance suggests the
weakening trend will likely continue this evening. Despite the
trend, ongoing storms retain a few stronger cores within 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30 kt of effective shear. While best
environment is likely stabilizing with the loss of heating this
evening, these storms may continue to pose an isolated severe risk
for wind and hail through the next couple of hours. Given the
decreasing severe risk with time, a follow on weather watch is not
expected.
..Lyons.. 05/10/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34837798 35087820 35177829 35327829 35467825 35587807
35727777 35937732 35727657 35617626 35287573 35197556
35197556 34687626 34527646 34527711 34707772 34837798
