MD 0755 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
Mesoscale Discussion 0755
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023
Areas affected...Portions of eastern Wyoming into the Black Hills
and western Nebraska Panhandle.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 102002Z - 102130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing storm coverage and intensity is expected this
afternoon and evening.
DISCUSSION...Storms have developed on the higher terrain across
south-central Wyoming in a region of upslope flow. Despite only
modest instability (~500 J/kg MLCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis), this
should be sufficient for severe storms and potentially supercells
given the strong forcing beneath strong diffluence aloft and
effective shear around 35 knots (per SPC mesoanalysis and the CYS
VWP).
Additional towers are developing off of the Black Hills with the
potential for one or two storms this afternoon/evening.
Given the potential for a supercell storm mode, large hail will be a
threat, and given the large temperature/dewpoint spreads, severe
wind gusts will also be possible. Unidirectional flow in the lowest
2-3 km (as seen on the CYS VWP) should limit the tornado potential
this afternoon.
Forecast soundings indicate a very slow storm motion (10 to 20
knots). Therefore, it may take awhile for storms to move off of the
higher terrain. Given the deep upslope flow in the region and
approaching mid-level shortwave trough and an uncapped atmosphere
across eastern Wyoming, cannot rule out isolated storm development,
but it is possible the majority of storms will remain back along the
terrain until much later this evening when storms move north into
the area out of northeast Colorado.
..Bentley/Guyer.. 05/10/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 41010656 41550722 41860817 41950859 42000869 42280875
42940842 43620779 44380640 45040486 45000405 44790337
43610313 41980359 41050389 41010656
