MD 0774 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0774
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023
Areas affected...much of southwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 121859Z - 122200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will develop rapidly over the next several hours,
resulting in areas of hail and severe gusts.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite continues to show low-level moisture
streaming westward with a slow-moving dryline, with strong heating
removing inhibition. The 18Z MAF sounding shows ample moisture is
now in place, with steep lapse rates aloft contributing to over 3000
J/kg MLCAPE.
As heating continues, storms should develop both along the moisture
gradient, and, move in from the south as storms cross the Rio
Grande. The weak flow regime will favor erratic storm motions with
development off the dryline, however, an eventual east/southeastward
trend is expected with time due to weak low-level southerly winds
and propagation into the moist air mass. Steep lapse rates combined
with ample water loading will lead to strong outflow and severe wind
gust potential. Some of the cellular storms may produce severe hail,
most likely early in the cycle.
..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/12/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 32530224 32830177 32910095 32750065 32310051 31680042
31180046 30620065 29580149 29670199 29560253 28990290
28820327 29050368 29780389 30310380 31000337 32140264
32530224
