MD 0776 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0776
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023
Areas affected...Eastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 122057Z - 122300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated, but intense, thunderstorms are possible across
eastern Kansas within the next few hours. Storm coverage remains
uncertain, but trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery across eastern KS shows a
deepening trend of cumulus congestus along a dryline over the past
hour. A 19 UTC sounding from TOP shows residual capping in place
over the region, and forcing for ascent along this portion of the
boundary remains somewhat weaker given some displacement from
stronger synoptic ascent to the north. Additional daytime heating
over the next couple of hours should allow temperatures to warm
further into the mid 80s, combined with adequate residence time
within the dryline circulation based on the TOP wind profile, may be
sufficient for isolated convection. While the number of storms
remains uncertain, the environment is characterized by strong
buoyancy (MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg) and favorable deep-layer shear for
organized supercells with an attendant risk of large hail and severe
winds (and perhaps a tornado closer to the I-70 corridor where
low-level flow is more backed to the southeast compared to locations
further south). Trends will continue to be monitored for
thunderstorm initiation, and a watch may be needed.
..Moore/Mosier.. 05/12/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37139712 37899669 38959638 39019640 39309574 39269520
38929476 38449466 37729477 37209518 36959569 36919647
36929687 37139712
