MD 0777 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 216… FOR PARTS OF WEST/SOUTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0777
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023
Areas affected...Parts of west/southwest TX
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216...
Valid 122243Z - 130015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216
continues.
SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe storms will continue this evening,
with a threat of severe hail/wind. Some larger storm clusters may
form later tonight and spread eastward.
DISCUSSION...At 2230 UTC, scattered strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of southwest TX, along/east
of a dryline and in advance of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough
moving northeastward out of northern Mexico. Rich low-level moisture
and relatively steep lapse rates are supporting large buoyancy, with
MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg noted across the region. With weak
deep-layer flow/shear in place, a mixture of pulse and weak
multicells is expected to continue through the evening, with a
threat of at least isolated large hail and strong/severe outflow
gusts.
With time, conglomerating outflows may result in an
eastward-advancing cold pool and potentially a loosely organized
MCS, which would result in a continued strong/severe wind threat
into a larger part of central TX, though this may not occur until
relatively late in the evening.
..Dean.. 05/12/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 30500364 33130051 33019902 30849949 29140023 28850109
28850281 28940329 29630365 30500364
