MD 0778 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 215… FOR EASTERN NE…SOUTHWESTERN IA…AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0778
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023
Areas affected...Eastern NE...southwestern IA...and far northwestern
MO
Concerning...Tornado Watch 215...
Valid 122300Z - 130030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 215 continues.
SUMMARY...The supercell tornado threat is spreading northeastward
and likely peaking during the next hour or so across Tornado Watch
215.
DISCUSSION...A broken band of semi-discrete, tornadic supercells is
spreading northeastward from eastern NE into southwestern IA and far
northwestern MO this evening. One longer-lived supercell in
particular over Dodge County, NE has shown recent intensification
(near 70-kt VROT) and deep TDS (likely a strong to intense tornado).
Backed surface winds beneath strengthening/veering flow aloft is
resulting in a favorably curved low-level hodograph (around 230
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per OAX VWP) ahead of the ongoing supercells. And,
earlier diurnal heating/destabilization of a moist/sheltered airmass
(upper 60s to lower/middle 70s dewpoints) will continue to support
moderately unstable surface-based inflow. Therefore, the supercell
tornado risk should continue spreading northeastward across Tornado
Watch 215 this evening.
..Weinman.. 05/12/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 40829523 40449528 40249546 40239592 40869613 41159639
41399668 41809710 42029723 42149708 42249673 42179630
41769576 41499550 41169531 40829523
