MD 0783 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0783 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023 Areas affected...Deep south Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 130337Z - 130500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms could spread across deep south Texas over the next several hours. Hail/wind are the primary risks. DISCUSSION...Low-latitude short-wave trough is ejecting across northern Mexico toward deep south TX. As a result, modest 500mb flow, on the order of 35kt, extends toward the lower Rio Grande Valley along the south side of the short wave. In response, 30kt 850mb southeasterly flow is noted across the western Gulf Basin into south-central TX where low-level moisture is quite high and instability is strong. 00z soundings from CRP and BRO exhibit MUCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg with steep mid-level lapse rates. Convection that developed over the higher terrain west of the international border is slowly propagating toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. This activity is slow moving but could eventually spread east of the border as weak inhibition exists across this region. Severe hail/wind may accompany this activity and a watch is currently being considered. ..Darrow/Thompson.. 05/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 26019745 26079859 27589934 27619800 26019745
