MD 0788 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222… FOR FAR EASTERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0788 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023 Areas affected...Far eastern Missouri into central and southwest Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222... Valid 131938Z - 132145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe winds and large hail continues across WW 222. The severe threat will likely be focused across central and southwest Illinois over the next 2 hours. DISCUSSION...KLSX radar imagery shows two semi-organized clusters/lines of storms moving into central IL and over the St. Louis area. The northern of these two clusters has recently shown signs of intensification in GOES IR imagery and lightning data, as well as in velocity data that depicts early signs of cold pool consolidation/organization. A surface thermal maximum is noted downstream in recent surface obs where temperatures on the low/mid 80s and SBCAPE should be regionally maximized. These trends suggests that damaging winds may become the predominant threat over the next couple of hours as line approaches central IL. To the south, a cluster of storms has had a history of severe hail with hail stones as large as 2 inches reported per recent LSRs. Similar to the line of storms to the north, IR imagery depicts periods of rapid cloud top cooling indicative of intense updrafts. Additional convection developing along the outflow from the original storms to the south of the St. Louis area will likely lead to further clustering/upscale growth over the next hour as storms migrate into southwest IL. While the severe hail threat will continue in the near term, the damaging wind potential may increase downstream as gradual upscale growth continues over the next 2-3 hours. A local expansion on the southern end of WW 222 may be needed in this time frame. ..Moore.. 05/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38719079 39029059 39329055 39659060 39789062 39979048 40139003 40168981 40138926 40038890 39768855 39428846 39138843 38798862 38638873 38218901 38028917 37918938 37888974 38129068 38229081 38419086 38719079