MD 0795 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 224… FOR EASTERN MO AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0795
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023
Areas affected...Eastern MO and south-central IL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224...
Valid 142247Z - 150015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224
continues.
SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and damaging gusts continues across
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224 this evening. The damaging-wind risk
should continue increasing during the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...During the last hour or so, regional radar data shows a
gradual mode transition from splitting supercells (right-dominant)
to increasingly organized clusters. Given mostly straight hodographs
per VWP data (favoring continued cell splitting) and increasing
convective outflow, localized upscale growth should continue during
the next few hours. In the meantime, isolated large hail and locally
damaging gusts remain possible with the more-separated supercell
structures; however, the damaging-wind risk is becoming an
increasing concern this evening. This should especially be the case
for parts of far east-central MO into south-central IL -- where
surface confluence is maximized and low-level lapse rates have
diurnally steepened amid lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints.
..Weinman.. 05/14/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 37899027 38209071 38449123 38569171 38849187 39199192
39709170 39949131 40049070 39979008 39708919 39418863
39098832 38748819 38358823 37998829 37688870 37598927
37638985 37899027
