MD 0797 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SERN WY…NEB PANHANDLE AND WRN NEB…NERN CO…NWRN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE AND WRN NEB...NERN CO...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 252027Z - 252200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...WIDELY SCTD SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN AND INTO THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW IS PSBL LATER THIS AFTN. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED/TOWERING CU FIELD ALONG SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM E-CENTRAL WY SWD INTO NERN CO. MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z SHOWS 40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS WY/NEB PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA DROPPING OFF TO 30 KTS OVER CO/KS PORTIONS. DIABATIC HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE CINH AND WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG SFC BOUNDARY INCREASING TO 2000 J/KG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA...EXPECT SVR TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MIX OF SUPERCELL AND MULTICELL STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY GIVEN RANGE OF SHEAR VALUES. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENHANCE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WHILE RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE STG WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE NOT NEGLIGIBLE...MAY BE TEMPERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BOUNDARY LAYER RH. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A PSBL WW THIS AFTN. ..BUNTING/MEAD.. 05/25/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 43090543 42940409 42960256 42800164 42400078 41660045 40870027 40180044 38790066 38590188 38760282 39590397 41590505 43090543
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0797.html
Be First to Comment