MD 0801 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218…220… FOR NWRN KS…SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218...220... VALID 260243Z - 260415Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218...220...CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS NWRN KS INTO CNTRL NEB...BUT A DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS RECENTLY BEEN NOTED. WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN AND NORTHEAST OF WW 220 IN CNTRL NEB...SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS WW 218 UNTIL SCHEDULED 0400Z EXPIRATION. DISCUSSION...A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NWRN KS IN WW 218 HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST HOUR...THOUGH AN INTENSE STORM REMAINS ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. DIURNAL COOLING AND INCREASINGLY MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO THE EAST OF THE NWRN KS ACTIVITY SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED SLOW DECREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT. DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS N-CNTRL KS...THOUGH A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE REQUIRED IF CURRENT ACTIVITY SUSTAINS ITSELF PAST THE EXPIRATION TIME. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB IN WW 220...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT QUICKLY INTENSIFIED AND PRODUCED LARGE HAIL...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE WEAKENED. WHILE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS IS WANING...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR WITH VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING...ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY INCREASE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN MODERATE CAPE/SHEAR FOR PARCELS ROOTED AROUND 850-900 MB. THIS THREAT WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST OF THE WW220 AND AREAS INTO NERN NEB WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE LATER TONIGHT. ..DEAN.. 05/26/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39040134 39420137 40160129 40810114 41390091 42000030 42229933 42199789 42029722 41809662 40549744 40209784 39729830 39229878 38939926 38779984 38860092 38920108 39040134
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0801.html
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