MD 0809 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PANHANDLE/NWRN TX…FAR WRN OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PANHANDLE/NWRN TX...FAR WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 262203Z - 270000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL HAZARDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AS TSTMS INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE. MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A LEE SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG THE E-CNTRL CO/W-CNTRL KS BORDER WITH A DRYLINE ARCING S/SWWD THROUGH THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. HIGH-BASED CU HAS GROWN IN THE PAST HOUR BOTH ALONG AND W OF THE DRYLINE. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...THIS CU SHOULD DEEPEN INTO TSTMS BY 23Z. WITH SLIGHT BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS IN THE KHHF AND KCDS OBS...MAINTENANCE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS E OF THE DRYLINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PRESENCE OF A MODERATE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /SAMPLED IN AMA VWP DATA/ ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE IMPULSE CROSSING THE SRN ROCKIES IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL LIKELY YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. GIVEN 35-40 DEG F SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL BE THE HAZARDS. ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 05/26/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 35860115 36200066 36609998 36519955 36289931 35519941 34349982 33540036 33340106 33380171 33600214 34370206 35860115
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