MD 0813 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 0813
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023
Areas affected...the Front Range of the Rockies into northeastern
Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 181830Z - 182030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered, intensifying thunderstorm development near the
Front Range may gradually consolidate into growing clusters of
storms while spreading into the plains through 2-4 PM MDT. Stronger
storms will pose primarily a risk for marginally severe hail and
eventually gusts approaching severe limits. Due to the marginal
nature of the severe threat, a watch is not anticipated, but trends
will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...As broad, weak mid-level troughing slowly shifts across
the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, thunderstorm development has been
gradually increasing along the Front Range, from near Laramie into
the Colorado Springs vicinity. Weak, moist easterly upslope flow is
contributing to destabilization east of the higher terrain, with
continuing insolation, and mixed-layer CAPE may now exceed 1000 J/kg
in a corridor east of Fort Collins and Denver through Fort Morgan
and Limon.
Light westerly deep-layer mean ambient flow on the order of 10-15 kt
will contribute to a slow eastward progression of storms off the
higher terrain this afternoon. As this occurs, modest deep-layer
shear (due to veering from the low-level easterlies with height) may
be sufficient to contribute to short-lived supercell structures
posing a risk for severe hail near/east of the urban corridor during
the next few hours. Farther into the plains, convection probably
will tend to grow upscale, accompanied by an increasing risk for
strong surface gusts through 20-22Z.
..Kerr/Grams.. 05/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41490516 41150415 40540319 39380291 38530378 38780498
40170505 41490516
