MD 0815 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 224… FOR ERN NEB…SW IA…NW MO…FAR NE KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0815
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SW IA...NW MO...FAR NE KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 224...
VALID 270640Z - 270815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 224
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SEVERE MCS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN ERN NEB...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF WW 224 ACROSS SW IA...NW MO AND
FAR NERN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF STORMS. A LOCAL EXTENSION IN AREA IS
CURRENTLY BEING DONE. WW ISSUANCE COULD BE NECESSARY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF WW 224 IF THE LINE CAN REMAIN ORGANIZED.
DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING LINE-SEGMENT JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF OMAHA...IS LOCATED ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2500
J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT TURNS SSEWD ACROSS FAR SW IA
INTO NW MO. FOR THIS REASON...THE BOWING LINE-SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO
TURN RIGHT MOVING ACROSS OMAHA AND APPROACHING KANSAS CITY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE LINE SEGMENT IS LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. ALTHOUGH THE NRN PART OF
THE MCS COULD BE ELEVATED...THE SRN PART IS LIKELY SFC-BASED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 05/27/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 42069633 41609659 41099680 40739638 40229593 39599553
39449446 39909375 41059391 41989530 42089578 42069633
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0815.html
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