MD 0817 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST CO TOWARD FAR NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0817
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023
Areas affected...northeast CO toward far northwest KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 182218Z - 182345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms over northeast Colorado may produce
strong gusts and hail as they continue to propagate southeast this
evening.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms developing southeast across
northeast CO late this afternoon may continue to sporadically
intensify with southeast extent as convection encounters slightly
stronger 0-6 km shear near the KS border. A gust of 50 kt was
reported at Sterling, CO around 30 minutes ago. If convection can be
maintained, marginally better boundary-layer moisture exists with
southeast extent, in additional to modestly steep low-level lapse
rates as convection approaches the CO/KS border. Strong gusts may
accompany this activity for the next couple of hours before
boundary-layer inhibition increases with onset of nocturnal cooling.
..Leitman/Smith.. 05/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 40820272 40470226 39770183 39610182 39480189 39380216
39370239 39440282 39790325 40110352 40590347 40730338
40910308 40820272
