MD 0820 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PART OF NWRN KS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF NWRN KS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 272023Z - 272130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEB IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BECOMING CAPABLE OF POSING A TORNADO THREAT...AND PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH WFO/S ACROSS NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL KS/SOUTH CENTRAL NEB. DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL KS /JUST S OF KHLC/...WITH ELY WINDS ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW HAVING INCREASED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. THIS LATTER FACTOR IS FAVORING A STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE WRN EXTENT OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER LOWER MO VALLEY MCS...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE LOCATED NEAR AND N OF I-70 BETWEEN COLBY AND HAYS KS. AN ENHANCED CU FIELD WAS LOCATED IN THIS AREA AND EXTENDED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WHERE INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST PROBABLE. IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO KS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 40-50 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET EMERGES NEWD INTO THE WRN/CENTRAL KS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...WHILE THE INCREASED ELY SURFACE WINDS HAVE SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA IS 200-300 M2 PER S2/ FAVORING A TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..PETERS/MEAD.. 05/27/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39000088 39710101 40220014 40479924 40299788 39679748 38949790 38919832 38829900 39059996 39000088
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0820.html
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