MD 0829 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023
Areas affected...southwestern New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 202325Z - 210130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Marginally severe wind and hail possible over the next
couple of hours. A watch is unlikely to be needed.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has increased over southwestern
New Mexico and across the Mexico border. Daytime heating has allow
MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg across the region, with storms in
Mexico increasing in intensity over the last hour. These storms have
merged with a broken line of storms moving eastward across Luna
County in New Mexico. A lone cell ahead of this line has had
indications of severe hail (up 1-1.25 inches). Flow is weak, with
deep layer shear around 20 kts. RAP analysis indicates shear may
increase to around 20-30 kts through the rest of the afternoon as
the weak upper-low across southern Arizona continues to drift
northward. Sounding profiles and surface analysis indicates very dry
air near surface air, which may support gusty downburst winds as
thunderstorms decay. Storm mode will continue to favor high-based
and broken clusters, with potential for severe hail in addition to
gusty winds.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 05/20/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 32010822 32290831 32940821 33300796 33450750 33390702
33150666 32870652 32470649 32200654 31950660 31840692
31810721 31820766 31820794 31820820 32010822
