MD 0863 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 236… FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO…WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0863 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico...West Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236... Valid 250726Z - 250930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage will likely continue for a couple more hours. However, the threat should become more isolated with time and additional weather watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Lubbock shows several supercells embedded in a cluster of strong to severe storms from near the New Mexico-Texas state line extending to just southwest of Lubbock. The storms are associated with a subtle shortwave trough riding eastward over the top of an upper-level ridge. The cluster is located behind an outflow boundary that is surging southward across west Texas. Although instability is weak, moderate deep-layer shear is evident on RAP analysis, with 0-6 km shear mostly between 35 and 40 knots across much of west Texas. The storms should remain organized in this environment for another hour or two, moving east-southeastward across west Texas. Rotating cells could produced isolated large hail. Wind damage will also be possible. The severe threat should become isolated as instability weakens, and the outflow boundary continues to surge southward. ..Broyles.. 05/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33840316 33670214 33380145 33150126 32820121 32630133 32520167 32560200 32750252 33110319 33290341 33450355 33640358 33780350 33860338 33840316