MD 0865 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TX TRANS-PECOS/BIG BEND REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0865
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
Areas affected...Parts of the TX Trans-Pecos/Big Bend region
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 251907Z - 252030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large hail and localized severe
gusts are expected to develop later this afternoon. Watch issuance
is possible.
DISCUSSION...At 19 UTC, visible satellite imagery depicts increasing
cumulus across the TX Trans Pecos region, with recent attempts at
convective initiation noted north and west of Marfa. Continued
diurnal heating of a relatively moist environment will result in
MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon, along with
decreasing MLCINH. Despite the lack of any notable mid/upper-level
shortwave troughs across the region, continued heating across the
higher terrain will lead to isolated to widely scattered storm
development by mid/late afternoon.
Flow/shear within the lowest 3 km is expected to remain quite weak,
but sufficient mid/upper-level flow will result in rather
long/straight hodographs and effective shear of 35-45 kt. Initial
development near the higher terrain may evolve into one or more
splitting supercells, with a resulting threat of large hail
(potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter), localized severe
gusts, and perhaps a tornado with any sustained right-moving
supercell. Watch issuance is possible later this afternoon in
response to these potential threats.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/25/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...
LAT...LON 30550495 31450395 31560355 31410259 29760197 29750237
29370260 29090270 28870312 28930376 29280446 30100486
30550495
