MD 0866 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO…SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO…AND THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 0866
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
Areas affected...portions of northeastern New Mexico...southeastern
Colorado...and the far western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 252042Z - 252245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may evolve late this afternoon
into the early evening. More persistent cells may pose a risk for
damaging winds and hail. A Weather Watch is possible.
DISCUSSION...Afternoon satellite imagery showed thunderstorms
developing along the higher terrain of the Raton Mesa and the Sangre
De Cristos. Across the adjacent High Plains, diurnal heating has
removed much of the inhibition ahead of these developing storms.
Weak upslope flow and continued heating should allow these storms to
move off the terrain with additional storms developing over the High
Plains late this afternoon into the early evening. 1000-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE will support robust updrafts but with little shear. Area VADs
show effective shear generally below 30 kt suggesting storm
organization may be limited. However, enough buoyancy may be present
to support some hail with the strongest storms. The severe threat
may increase later this evening with the arrival of the low-level
jet. Enhanced shear may support a locally greater risk of supercells
across northeast NM into the OK/TX panhandles. A greater risk for
hail and isolated damaging winds may evolve with these potential
storms later this evening. While uncertainty remains fairly high on
the coverage of organized storms, the potential for supercells later
suggests a weather watch may eventually be needed.
..Lyons/Hart.. 05/25/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35290492 37010522 38140519 38370447 38230346 38090315
37530282 36800245 36010246 35320248 34950259 34210300
34270432 34730474 35290492
