MD 0874 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0874 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 Areas affected...Southeastern New Mexico and west Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 261950Z - 262145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon/evening. One or more watches will likely be needed later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Residual convective activity from an overnight MCS is now moving through portions of northwest Texas, leaving a cold pool in its wake across portions of west Texas into far southeastern New Mexico. Visible satellite observations show gradual clearing occurred over most of the region this morning into the early afternoon, which has allowed for rapid airmass recovery and destabilization, with the exception of the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains where cloud cover has remained. Where clearing has occurred, surface temperatures have risen into mid 70s F amid rich low-level moisture characterized by dew point temperatures in the 50s and low 60s F. These surface conditions, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km, are yielding MLCAPE values near 1500-2000 J/kg. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery and SPC mesoanalysis depict an approaching weak trough and associated vorticity maxima, embedded within broad southwesterly mid-level flow. Backed low-level easterly winds exist along and north or the remnant outflow, with southeasterly upslope flow residing south of the boundary. These conditions are yielding effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, which should become more widespread with time. Current satellite/radar trends show isolated convective development occurring over the high terrain of central New Mexico, with repeated convective attempts farther south along the Sacramento Range. Given these trends and the aforementioned environmental conditions, the current expectation is for a few focused corridors of supercells to develop in proximity to the aforementioned regions, as well as farther south over portions of west Texas, and spread east this afternoon and evening. This scenario is supported by recent CAMs/WoFS guidance. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should remain the primary hazards. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible, particularly with any storm that moves off the high terrain into the richer low-level moisture/shear environment along and north of the outflow boundary. ..Karstens/Hart.. 05/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 30490269 30310381 31660476 32470528 32810575 33660583 34390639 34830676 35400611 35370468 34710312 33260238 31870231 30490269