MD 0875 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0875 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 Areas affected...the northern High Plains region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262042Z - 262245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging winds and hail is forecast to increase over the next few hours as storms develop. WW issuance may be required by 6 PM. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis locates a weak surface low over central Wyoming north of Rawlins, and a trough/front extending northeastward across southeastern Montana and northwestern North Dakota. Visible satellite/radar loops show convection increasing across the central Wyoming area, in the vicinity the low, and northeastward along the surface boundary, as daytime heating of the modestly moist (50s surface dewpoints) boundary layer across the region yielding 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Given somewhat weak flow aloft, severe risk with the initial/developing convection should remain limited/pulse-like. With time, however, increasing convective coverage may result in upscale growth into a northeastward-moving, semi-organized band of convection by early evening. This could result in an uptick wind risk, with WW issuance possible in the next few hours in anticipation of the gradually increasing severe risk. ..Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW... LAT...LON 46480863 47020721 47080487 46780370 44720325 43460358 43460690 44570719 45150849 45770902 46480863