MD 0881 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 243… FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO…WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0881 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...West Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243... Valid 270648Z - 270845Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and wind-damage threat will continue across parts of the eastern New Mexico and west Texas over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Lubbock shows a loosely organized MCS from northeast New Mexico extending southeastward to the New-Mexico/Texas state-line directly west of Lubbock. Surface analysis shows a moist airmass in place across west Texas into eastern New Mexico, where surface winds are backed to the east-southeast and dewpoints are in the 60s F. The storms are located to the east of an axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP from Lubbock has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots and veering winds with height in the low to mid-levels. This profile combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will favor supercells with isolated large hail. Wind damage will also be possible near the stronger downdrafts. The threat is expected to continue for several more hours as the cells move southeastward across the southern High Plains. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33100257 33360230 33810225 34510243 35320285 35710320 35850368 35810433 35600463 35160463 34520423 33600381 33190304 33100257