MD 0899 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0899
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023
Areas affected...Parts of central and northern Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302005Z - 302230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally damaging gusts are
possible across parts of central and northern Minnesota this
afternoon and early evening. A watch is not expected at this time.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a gradually
deepening boundary-layer cumulus field in the vicinity of a weak
confluence zone draped across parts of west-central Minnesota this
afternoon. Continued diurnal heating amid somewhat sheltered
boundary-layer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints) near the confluence
zone and a mesoscale low should support isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms during the next few hours.
Within the pre-convective environment, weak low-level warm-air
advection beneath a belt of strengthening midlevel westerly flow
should yield around 30-35 kt of effective shear with modest
low-level hodograph curvature. This wind profile, coupled with the
development of moderate surface-based instability will conditionally
support supercell structures capable of isolated large hail and
locally damaging winds. Current thinking is that the severe threat
may remain relatively isolated given the subtle forcing for ascent,
though convective trends will be monitored through the afternoon.
..Weinman/Hart.. 05/30/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 45229335 44939384 44869438 44849504 44989544 45469577
45889567 46409546 46919529 47349514 47959498 48089488
48259450 48289398 48209349 48019314 47719296 46999277
46319280 45919294 45229335
