MD 0907 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN SD…SOUTHWESTERN MN…AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND
Mesoscale Discussion 0907
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023
Areas affected...Northeastern SD...southwestern MN...and far
southeastern ND
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 311911Z - 312045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail and locally
damaging downbursts could persist for the next couple hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from ABR shows some recent
intensification of a storm cluster moving northeastward in
northeastern SD this afternoon -- ahead of a remnant MCV. A 60 mph
gust was recently observed with this activity. VWP data indicates a
modest enhancement of low/mid-level flow accompanying the remnant
MCV (around 30 kt of 0-6 km shear and a veering wind profile). This
wind profile, combined with a diurnally destabilizing air mass
beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates, could favor a couple
instances of marginally severe hail and localized downbursts on an
isolated basis this afternoon. The overall severe threat should
remain mostly confined along/immediately ahead of the remnant MCV.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 05/31/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 44389677 44849683 45149697 45429720 45629761 45989768
46229744 46399713 46429663 46269611 45989565 45509536
44879525 44239546 43949597 43909637 44069661 44389677
