MD 0909 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0909
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023
Areas affected...Southeastern Colorado and southwestern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 311947Z - 312145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts could
accompany the stronger storms this afternoon. A watch is not
expected at this time.
DISCUSSION...Differential heating along the northern edge of outflow
spreading northeastward across southeastern CO is resulting in
isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. While midlevel
flow and deep-layer shear is relatively weak over the area, VWP data
shows an increase in 2-3 km flow during the last couple hours --
which could aid in some updraft organization. With steep deep-layer
lapse rates and a relatively moist air mass (middle/upper 50s
dewpoints) in place, the more organized storms could produce
isolated large hail and locally severe gusts through the afternoon.
Current thinking is that the severe threat will remain too isolated
for a watch.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 05/31/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37220250 37580281 37860341 37960384 38220408 38510401
38730370 38940322 38980258 38810187 38480134 37840105
37360123 37050165 37030225 37220250
