MD 0936 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0936
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023
Areas affected...Deep South Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 051817Z - 052015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Potential for severe thunderstorms through the afternoon
capable of large hail and damaging wind. A watch may be needed
within the hour.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development continues along a southward
moving outflow boundary intersecting the sea breeze along the
southern Texas Coast. Additional storm development is expected along
and ahead of these boundaries as they move into a more favorable
thermodynamic/flow environment where MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg
overlaps 30-35 kt deep layer shear. Over the last hour, deepening cu
has been noted across much of Deep South Texas. This environment
will support clustered cell development, with potential for
transient supercells. RAP forecast soundings indicate low-level
shear may remain weak through the afternoon, likely limiting the
tornado risk. Storm mergers and interactions with outflow may allow
for enough enhancement of surface vorticity for a tornado, given
deep moisture and an unstable environment. Large hail and damaging
wind will be the main threats. A watch may be needed within the
hour.
..Thornton/Grams.. 06/05/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
LAT...LON 26379881 26609884 26929876 27079865 27349830 27399789
27349753 27249736 27049719 26639700 26399697 26149695
25959700 25809717 25879738 25939756 26039770 26039793
26089819 26169837 26239853 26289870 26379881
