MD 0938 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL MT
Mesoscale Discussion 0938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023
Areas affected...Parts of west-central MT
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051957Z - 052200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated hail and localized
strong/severe gusts will be possible through the remainder of the
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong thunderstorms have recently
developed to the west and north of Lewistown, MT, and also north of
Havre. This activity is being supported by a compact mid/upper-level
low over ID, and additional thunderstorm development is expected
through the remainder of the afternoon.
The strongest heating has occurred across west-central MT, where
MLCAPE has increased to above 1000 J/kg per recent mesoanalyses.
This region also has somewhat stronger deep-layer shear (compared to
areas to the west), aided by modestly enhanced southerly midlevel
flow to the east of the mid/upper-level low. A few strong multicells
and perhaps a marginal supercell will be possible, with an attendant
threat of isolated hail and localized strong/severe gusts. With the
threat expected to remain rather marginal and isolated, watch
issuance is not expected.
..Dean/Grams.. 06/05/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...
LAT...LON 48990944 47340918 46520942 46421200 48631177 49011160
48971118 48990944
