MD 0943 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO…FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 0943
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023
Areas affected...portions of central and northern New Mexico...far
southeastern Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 062031Z - 062230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds possible
through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been ongoing across
portions of far eastern Arizona and New Mexico. A few of these
storms have produced nickel to quarter size hail across eastern
Arizona and northeastern New Mexico. Surface objective analysis
indicates daytime heating yielding around 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE atop
steep lapse rates through the profile. Increasing southerly flow
from a mid-level jet max across Arizona has led to around 20 kts of
shear, which is largely speed shear as winds are uniform in
direction with height. This environment will favor multi-cell
clusters, a few of which may produce instances of severe hail and
gusty winds. Weak shear for organization is expected to keep
coverage of this threat too localized to warrant watch issuance.
..Thornton/Grams.. 06/06/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 35810577 36370543 36680528 37120485 37260471 37420443
37570405 37430317 37090314 35790322 35220332 33780435
33370443 32750495 32720496 32490615 32630654 33070726
33620774 33750811 33970856 34320870 34610885 35010888
35310879 35480871 35320801 35340698 35810577
