MD 0950 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273… FOR PORTIONS WRN OK…EXTREME SWRN KS…EXTREME SERN CO…TX PANHANDLE…OK PANHANDLE.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 PM CDT MON JUN 03 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN OK...EXTREME SWRN KS...EXTREME SERN
CO...TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273...
VALID 040308Z - 040415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR TO COVER
CONTINUING/PRIMARY SVR THREAT FROM MCS NOW TURNING SEWD ACROSS
PORTIONS NERN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN OK. COMPLEX PRODUCED 66-KT GUST
AT GAG AT 227Z.
DISCUSSION...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST...BUT ITS SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL..AND CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
FORCED ASCENT OF INCREASINGLY MOIST INFLOW-LAYER AIR SUGGEST THREAT
WILL LAST BEYOND SCHEDULED 04Z WW EXPIRATION. 35-40 KT SLY
LLJ...EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA OVER WRN OK INTO SWRN KS...WILL
AID WITH BOTH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CONVECTIVE REGION AND
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. STG MERIDIONAL GRADIENT IN BOTH CAPE AND
CINH STILL IS EVIDENT OVER W-CENTRAL OK...ALONG AND E OF LLJ
AXIS...AND SHOULD PERSIST ENOUGH SUCH THAT MCS EFFECTIVELY SHOULD
TURN MORE SSEWD WITH TIME TOWARD HIGHER-THETAE AIR MASS OF SWRN OK
AND EXTREME ERN TX PANHANDLE. PRESENCE OF NWLY TO NNWLY MEAN-WIND
AND DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS OVER THIS REGION ALSO SUPPORT THAT SCENARIO.
FARTHER W...TSTMS MOVING OUT OF SERN CO MAY OFFER MRGL SVR-WIND
THREAT AS THEY MOVE THROUGH POCKET OF DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR WITH MRGLLY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY...UNTIL ENCOUNTERING MCS OUTFLOW
OVER OK PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SWRN KS IN ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS.
SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER ERN NM HAS PRODUCED A FEW STG-SVR
GUSTS IN DEEPLY MIXED AIR W OF DRYLINE. STATIC STABILITY SHOULD
INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME ACROSS ADJOINING SECTIONS OF
PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS W OF DRYLINE...DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR SVR
GUSTS GENERATED ALOFT TO REACH SFC. HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL
DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THAT ACTIVITY DISSIPATES.
..EDWARDS.. 06/04/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 37040292 37490186 37389970 36939820 34709815 34019959
33960236 34090288 37040292
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0950.html
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